Week 9 - Geopolitical Analysis
Assad’s Ouster and the Shifting Balance of Power in the Middle East
Source:How Syria rebels' stars aligned for Assad's ouster | Reuters
On December 9, 2024, Syrian rebels ended Bashar al-Assad’s five-decade family rule, a seismic event in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The swift campaign, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), unfolded over two weeks, beginning with the capture of Aleppo and culminating in Damascus. Assad’s regime crumbled under the weight of a demoralized military, depleted resources, and weakened allies like Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia. Turkey’s tacit approval of the rebel operation, along with its ongoing involvement in northern Syria, positioned it as the dominant external force in post-Assad Syria. Meanwhile, the power vacuum left by Assad raises concerns about the future stability of Syria and the region at large.
The fall of Assad signifies much more than a regime change; it underscores the complex sectarian power struggles that have shaped Middle Eastern geopolitics. Assad’s Alawite, Shiite-aligned sect has relied on his rule for survival in a Sunni-dominated region. For decades, Assad’s regime served as a buffer against Sunni-led powers like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. With his removal, the Alawites face the threat of annihilation or marginalization, echoing the broader Sunni-Shiite conflict that has driven much of the region’s instability.
This development also parallels Iraq’s turmoil after the removal of Saddam Hussein. Saddam, a Sunni leader governing a Shiite majority, maintained a delicate geopolitical balance. His ouster created a power vacuum that fueled the rise of extremist groups like ISIS. Similarly, Syria’s fragmented Sunni opposition may struggle to govern effectively, potentially opening the door to renewed extremism and chaos.
Turkey’s role in Assad’s downfall reflects its strategic positioning in the region. By supporting the rebels, Turkey not only bolstered its influence in Syria but also addressed its objectives of curbing Kurdish power and managing refugee flows. However, Turkey’s association with HTS, a group with a history of extremism, raises ethical questions and complicates its relations with Western powers.
The weakening of Assad’s key allies, particularly Iran and Hezbollah, marks a significant shift in the region’s power dynamics. Iran’s influence in Syria, already diminished by Hezbollah’s losses in its conflict with Israel, has taken a critical hit. This benefits Sunni-led nations like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, but it also risks destabilizing the fragile balance of power that has kept broader conflicts in check.
The removal of Assad is a double-edged sword. While it represents a victory for those who suffered under his oppressive rule, it also brings immense risks. The potential genocide of the Alawite community is not just a humanitarian concern but a reminder of how deeply entrenched sectarian divides can lead to violence. Assad’s decades-long rule was as much about preserving his sect as it was about maintaining political control, and his absence leaves the Alawites vulnerable to retribution.
Moreover, the fall of Assad risks destabilizing the entire Middle East. His regime, for all its brutality, served as a bulwark against extremist factions and a check on competing powers. Without Assad, Syria could become a battleground for rival factions and foreign powers, mirroring the chaos in post-Saddam Iraq.
In conclusion, Assad’s removal is a momentous event, but it is not the end of Syria’s challenges. It is the beginning of a new chapter fraught with uncertainty and potential upheaval. The world must act with foresight and sensitivity to ensure this turning point does not lead to greater suffering and instability.
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